REVIEW: The improbability principle by David J. Hand
Review by Scott Albright
Probabilistically I’m sitting here writing these words, but just as probabilistically I’m also sitting somewhere else writing these same words, or even some other words for that matter. I can be in the same place at the same time, but can’t I also be present in two times at the same place? Or present at two times in two places? In extra dimensions I suppose it’s possible, but in David Hand’s The Improbability Principle we’re not going beyond the human experience, which in most cases is only in four dimensions. This is a good thing for understanding everyday life, as this book brings home some basic principles we need as humans to sharpen our survival skills. First off, there is the law of large numbers. Let’s begin with that. When it comes to the likelihood of us dying there is a good chance it will come from an automobile accident, heart disease, cancer, a natural disaster, or some form of violence. Now there are seven billion people on this planet. If the majority of us die from the above mentioned things than it should be quite obvious that all we have to do to improve our chances of living longer is to avoid the things that cause those forms of death. So that means no driving or being near cars, staying away from junk food, cigarettes, alcohol, and drugs, avoiding areas prone to natural disasters, and staying away from violent environments. In doing so we can avoid being another one of the large numbers statistically proven to meet the inevitability of death because of the above mentioned things. That brings us to what I think is the second most important point of The Improbability Principle - the probability lever. Manipulating the lever can change the outcome of events by means of the butterfly effect. Small changes can have large effects over long durations. When mixed with the law of large numbers and the law of selection, |
|
the probability lever can also create dramatic effects in short periods of time. Measuring the outcomes may not be so easy however, as the outcomes may never be as predictable as one thinks they will be, no matter how refined their alterations to the probability lever are. Beyond trying to control the probability lever for survival purposes, one could also use it to try to change the outcome of a political election, as I had considered while writing a piece on the Bernalillo County Sheriff’s race during the midterm elections.
After writing the article, in which I thought it was nearly impossible not to use the law of selection to provide information which made one candidate seem more favorable than the other, I asked my friend to read the article and to tell me who he would vote for based on what I had written. To my surprise he picked the exact opposite person whom I thought he would. Clearly my understanding of the law of selection was wrong. Or was it? As it turned out, the person I thought was going to win based on the information I had available to me, did indeed win the election. But how am I to know if my consideration of the probability lever had any effect on the final outcome? The answer is, I won’t. And that’s the essence of Hand’s book.
You can choose to play the lotto or you can’t. If you don’t you won’t win. If you do, you might, but if you are the lucky one who’s to know which factors played the most influence on the final outcome? How much was luck and how much had to do with the law of selection or the manipulation of the probability lever? If you buy all the lotto tickets and win than you know the law of selection and the law of large numbers were in effect, but if you buy one and win it seems like chance is more in play than any type of pre-selected outcome.
Card counters can create deterministic futures, but only to a certain degree. And that’s the lesson learned from The improbability Principle - chance has to rule, as there really is only so much time to try and manipulate the future while in the present. In a quantum holographic extra-dimensional multi-verse one has the time to consider all the possibilities before making a move, but for us Earth-bound four-dimensional human creations time is limited and random chance may always be our only best bet.
So if you want to win the lotto, don’t think reading this book will improve your chances dramatically. But if you want to understand why things happen happen the way they do even when they seem they shouldn’t, than this book is definitely for you. In sum, the author explains that if the first explanation seems like it is the most improbable, than you should definitely go with something else that is more probable. In doing so we can avoid making some of the most basic mistakes while trying to decipher the different realities constantly being presented to us. I personally couldn’t put this book down and recommend it to anyone and everyone who hated math because they didn’t understand how it related to everyday life. This book will put an entirely new perspective on that attitude. Read it or don’t. The final outcome is your choice.
After writing the article, in which I thought it was nearly impossible not to use the law of selection to provide information which made one candidate seem more favorable than the other, I asked my friend to read the article and to tell me who he would vote for based on what I had written. To my surprise he picked the exact opposite person whom I thought he would. Clearly my understanding of the law of selection was wrong. Or was it? As it turned out, the person I thought was going to win based on the information I had available to me, did indeed win the election. But how am I to know if my consideration of the probability lever had any effect on the final outcome? The answer is, I won’t. And that’s the essence of Hand’s book.
You can choose to play the lotto or you can’t. If you don’t you won’t win. If you do, you might, but if you are the lucky one who’s to know which factors played the most influence on the final outcome? How much was luck and how much had to do with the law of selection or the manipulation of the probability lever? If you buy all the lotto tickets and win than you know the law of selection and the law of large numbers were in effect, but if you buy one and win it seems like chance is more in play than any type of pre-selected outcome.
Card counters can create deterministic futures, but only to a certain degree. And that’s the lesson learned from The improbability Principle - chance has to rule, as there really is only so much time to try and manipulate the future while in the present. In a quantum holographic extra-dimensional multi-verse one has the time to consider all the possibilities before making a move, but for us Earth-bound four-dimensional human creations time is limited and random chance may always be our only best bet.
So if you want to win the lotto, don’t think reading this book will improve your chances dramatically. But if you want to understand why things happen happen the way they do even when they seem they shouldn’t, than this book is definitely for you. In sum, the author explains that if the first explanation seems like it is the most improbable, than you should definitely go with something else that is more probable. In doing so we can avoid making some of the most basic mistakes while trying to decipher the different realities constantly being presented to us. I personally couldn’t put this book down and recommend it to anyone and everyone who hated math because they didn’t understand how it related to everyday life. This book will put an entirely new perspective on that attitude. Read it or don’t. The final outcome is your choice.
This book review can be found in Distracted Masses Vol. 1, Issue #3. Help support independent media and purchase your copy today!
D1str4ct3d Mass3s The Illusion of Memory Authored by Crawling Ant Productions Contributions by Rick Albright, LaWanda Albright, Alex Albright, Scott Albright Edition: 3 This special edition of Distracted Masses delves deep into the problems with police violence in America with a first-hand account of an attack by three plainclothes police officers on the creator of this magazine. After being assaulted, tasered, and dumped on the side of the road with no medical help, charges, or explanation of why he was attacked the creator of Distracted Masses filed an official report with the Albuquerque Police Department but to his dismay found little to no help in tracking down and arresting the thugs who almost killed him. Inside you'll find a self-generated police sketch of the main suspect who is still at large and believed to still be employed by a U.S. or state government agency. |
|